Islamic State

So the Islamic State is the topic du jour right now so lets carry on with it.

Who's doing what?

USS George H.W. Bush in Arabian Gulf

The U.S has already conducted its first offensive airstrikes in support of Iraqi army and Kurdish forces in the Mosul region. Obama has just ruled out putting boots on the ground for combat purposes but will be sending forces to assist the Iraqi army, the trouble is that it's easy to make statements but the reality can be very different. There is also talk of airstrikes in Syria, the U.S is warning the Syrian government against interfering in this.

Peshmerga forces

Britain has begun sending arms (heavy machine guns and ammo) to the Kurds (most probably the Peshmerga militias) as well as having already provided non-lethal support such as body-armor. Britain is also ferrying arms from Arab nations, it is not clear who is the recipient of these arms but it's probably the Iraqi army rather than the Kurds. Britain has also hinted that it would conduct airstrikes in Iraq if parliament approved, Syria appears off the table as experts have taken the view it would be illegal without a request from the Syrian government.

Australian forces at Baghdad embassy

- Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other unnamed Arab nations have pledged support for the actions against ISIS. There are suggestions that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may provide airstrikes but the bulk of the support will most probably be logistical providing airbases and the like.

- Australia agrees to commit 600 troops and 8 fighter jets to the coalition.

- France looks set to begin reconnaissance flights in Iraq.

What comes next?

Islamic State

The Islamic State has over 30,000 fighters as part of it's organisation. The planned airstrikes and ground offensives may tear the organisation apart but it's fighters will for the most part be left intact. The fighters will disperse, many will stay in the same combat arena and join up with other Islamic factions, some will start jihadi activities in Arab nations who have been attacking them and others will return home possibly also to carry on the fight. The attacks will almost certainly not reduce Islamic militism and will probably just pour fuel on the fire.

Iraq

Iraq's internal conflicts will continue. The Iraqi army and militias will have been given a shot of steroids by all the aid the international community is giving it. Unfortunately this just means that when the status quo is restored we've got a beefed up Shia fighting force ready to start stomping on the Sunni again. There will be further ethnic rife, it's just not going to go away.

The same applies for the Kurds who have been vying for independence for a long time. The Kurds will most likely use the current conflict with the Islamic State to increase their position in the country and arms will surely flow in to Syria as well to aid the Kurdish struggle there. Once those two regions have been consolidated the Kurds will probably re-open their front against Turkey.

The Sunni's are going to be the whipping boys in all this. Blamed for the Islamic State there will be a backlash against them, power sharing will be tabled by the U.S but nothing real will materialise. The Sunni's will go back to plotting and organising and the seeds of further Sunni rebellion will grow.

Syria

Syria is going to be a basket-case for a very long time to come. No one is winning the war, arms will continue to pour in and it's just going to be painful to watch. Millions upon millions of refugees will continue to flee the country and that will stress their neighbours. A resurgence of Islamic activity is almost certain once the U.S and its partners leave the arena as they will.

The wider region

It's hard to predict what will happen in the wider region. Turkey isn't going to have a very pleasant time of things. They have a long border (910 km) with Syria that could easily see a free flow of militants back and forth. Also the Kurds could easily restart their conflict for independence. Iran is quite heavily invested in Iraq and this could backfire on them - the Shia / Sunni divide is likely to be a significant issue for a time to come. Saudi Arabia, UAE and the other Arab nations may find a backlash as well. There is likely to be some increased tension as internal conflicts grow, people with extremist agendas within these nations are likely to continue to push the point and there could be a flow of militants entering.