Islamic State, our new neighbours from hell

It's quite hard not to have heard of Islamic State, ISIS or ISIL or whatever you choose to call them these days. About 2 months back they rocketed on to the scene with a brazen invasion of Iraqi territories and the near collapse of the Iraqi military overnight. Before that, they were being reported on but I doubt many people were paying much attention - just another bunch of zealots in an area teeming with religious extremism.

Who are they?

IS fighters and commander Abu Waheeb

The group isn't new in any way. Their roots lie in an Islamic group formed in 1999 with the intent to overthrow the Kingdom of Jordan. Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq they joined the insurgency (dare I say resistance) against the coalition forces and Iraqi government. In 2004 they pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda and became known in the West as 'Al Qaeda in Iraq'. 

During the insurgency they gained control over various areas of Iraq and in 2006 declared an Islamic State, this was made possible by the disenfranchisement of the Sunnis (and Kurdish and other minority communities) by the government. In 2007 the American's stepped up their efforts to bring order to the country. America sent extra troops but more importantly the Sunni militias turned on the group who were foreign influenced and viewed as brutal and unrepresentative of the community as a whole - Al Qaeda in Iraq went in to decline.

In 2009 and 2010 they began to recover their strength, the U.S was withdrawing from Iraq and in 2010 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over the organisation following the death of it's leader. Under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the group re-organised and replenished it's leaders from former B'aath party (the former Saddam Hussein government) members. 

Finally in 2011 the protest movement in Syria that developed in to a fully fledged war provided a perfect opportunity for IS to expand their operations. IS soldiers began entering the conflict early on (under the banner of Al-Nusra) and capitalised on the disorder to take control of areas of the country. Due to the victories they won in Syria many fighters chose to side with them which further strengthened them. There is speculation that the Syrian government have avoided engaging with IS. IS are openly in conflict with the Syrian rebel movement which is an aid to the Syrian regime. 

That brings us to today, IS strengthened and battle-hardened by it's victories in Syria moved back in to Iraq and conquered large swathes of the country very quickly. As the Iraqi army retreated they gained control of advanced weaponry supplied by the Americans and are now an even more formidable foe than ever. American air-strikes have helped stem the tide but the conflict will without doubt be a prolonged and painful affair.

Why Does All This Matter?

There are two sides to this that really effect us. 

1 - The first effect gets all the attention but in my opinion isn't all that huge a concern. People from all over the world have headed to the Middle East to fight. We're trying to keep track of who's who but there is always the chance someone will slip through the net - it's also hard to determine who went out for humanitarian causes and who went out to fight so you have to monitor everybody which just doesn't work. These people are potential Jihadis but the threat is minimal - if they were to carry out an attack the death toll would be minimal, 50-100 people at most and probably a lot less. It's scary to think there are monsters out there but it's more psychological than an existential threat.

2 - The Middle East is a huge player in oil - without Middle Eastern oil we'd be up the creek without a paddle. Now IS hasn't managed to seriously effect production yet, Syria doesn't produce all that much and they've failed so far to get their hands on the Iraqi oilfields but just the lack of stability in the area is a huge concern. An increase in militarism in the region by IS or any other group will have a huge impact on the world economy which is why the U.S and who knows else will start stomping all over the region once again. They won't succeed in anything meaningful and will stir up the hornets nest even more in the process but the threat is too great for them to do nothing.

No real analysis I'm afraid but more to follow I promise. Click here if you want to read more.