Today's News - The Ukraine Crisis

What is the Ukraine crisis? 

Kiev protests

The Ukraine crisis if you just look at the surface is an internal military conflict between two groups with opposing views. Those in the Western part of the country (the area around the capital Kiev) are pro-European and those in the East and the South are pro-Russia - the boundaries are obviously not that clear cut but for a generalisation it works. If you delve a little deeper things are a lot murkier. Ukraine has become a battlefield for the great and powerful to work out their differences. In 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed Russia was put on the backfoot and powers such as Europe and the U.S capitalised on this. Many Eastern nations joined up with the E.U and NATO (OTAN) started signing up new members in the region. Now Russia is coming back to power and they're eyeing up their old territories - a line has been drawn in Ukraine and a conflict has erupted there.

How, When and Why did it begin? 

The problems began back in November 2013 when the Ukrainian government suspended preparations for a trade deal with the E.U (tensions between pro-European and pro-Russian factions had been running for many years already though). Quickly a protest movement started against the government action, violence erupted as the police tried to control the situation and the heavy handed tactics including snipers targeting protesters resulted in greater support for the movement. Eventually the protesters got the upper hand and the President fled the country and elections were scheduled. Russia perceived the action as a coup and refused to recognise the interim government.

Shortly after the new government was declared pro-Russian areas of the country began to declare that they desired independence / re-unification with Russia. Crimea was the most active region to begin with and Russian troops were on the ground very early on in the pretense of guarding Russian citizens. Crimea held a referendum on March 16 in which they decided to join the Russian Federation. The E.U, U.S and Ukraine did not accept the validity of the election claiming that voters had not been given the option of remaining part of the Ukraine, a lack of international observers, intimidation and fraud. In April regions in the East of Ukraine began to make similar demands for independence and shortly afterwards a full on military conflict erupted between pro-Russian forces and the Ukrainian military. Recently it appears Russian troops have entered the Ukraine to support the flagging pro-Russia forces. There is definitely evidence that a well-armed pro-Russian column has made significant advances in the South of the country.

Why's it such a big deal? 

Russian Troops

This is a major turning point in relations between Russia and the E.U and U.S. NATO countries bordering Russia are getting nervous and are requesting a greater troop presence - a planned NATO exercise in Poland (close to the border with Ukraine) will see 1000 troops put on the ground. The U.S has already deployed 600 troops from an armoured brigade and NATO as a whole has increased the number of aircraft in the region. Russia is acting likewise, in April 40,000 troops were stationed along the Ukrainian border for 'exercises' very much like the NATO 'exercises'. 20,000 troops are currently stationed along the border.

The troop presence is just posturing really, it's worrying as it means both sides think that an increase in the conflict is possible but at the moment it's just the alpha males beating their chests. More worrying and already damaging are the sanctions both sides are flinging at each other. The sanctions began just targeting a few individuals but have now escalated to entire sectors being targeted - this is painful for everyone. E.U GDP has fallen to zero growth and if things don't get better will edge in to negative territory. Russian GDP is already negative and they'll probably be in recession before the year ends. This tit for tat business will see the whole world being hit by a slowdown in two major economies.

The Good News

A peace deal is to be tabled this Friday so we may yet see a de-escalation of what's a pretty crazy situation. EDIT: Pro-Russian forces were at the negotiations and a preliminary ceasefire has been negotiated.